On EU negotiations he’s already ditched the good options. His priority now is simply to deflect attention from his failings
To
understand the likes of Boris Johnson as he approaches a fork in the road, he
helps to imagine speeches he can draft in praise of each path. We know that he
has verbal dexterity. In 2016, uncertain against Brexit or coming out, Johnson
drafted two contradictory newspaper columns. He preferred his own voice as a
lever.
The tune was catchy in those days. It was Ompah Independence Day, and Johnson sang the lead song. He is now Prime Minister and cacophony of Brexit customs declarations and standards certificates. The agreement required to have a healthy relationship with Britain's neighbors does not harmonize with the eurosceptic melody of pure sovereignty.
Time
is running to complete free trade agreements that can implement those
agreements. Even a setback is coming with a deal when the transitional
arrangement ends on 1 January. If the conversation breaks down the blow is
double. The border is not ready and there will be no goodwill from the European
Union to manipulate Britain's administrative level; There is no flex in the UK
as Britain has chosen to impose itself with bureaucracy. This is the difference
between a hard landing and a crash landing.
Although the only type of deal remains, Johnson can still say it in heroic terms. Doomers have been proven wrong, he will be depressed. He said that it would take 10 years; We did it in 10 months. Now we lay down the sword of struggle and beat it into a ploughshare for the fertile soil of global trade. e.t.c.
The opposite speech would also come easily to Johnson's lips: a deal, regrettably, has not been reached. We extended a friendly hand but Brussels wanted to bring it under the regulatory ambit. Our sovereignty is not for sale. Crispy water ahead! But our ship is strong and there is an air of freedom on our back…
A rational audit of economic and strategic national interests gives the Prime Minister the first of those scenarios. But there are other factors in the equation Downing Street is trying to solve. The limits of a tolerable compromise are set by radical eurosceptic doctrine and by the fear of a Conservative party already resting from the government's epidemic.
Fishing quotas and coronavirus viruses may not seem related, but both reveal fury on the Tory backbench. No one could do 10 without fighting two fires at once. Through incompetence and spectacular neglect, Johnson has alienated many of his MPs, even with a majority of 80 seats not padded against the Commons defeat. That vulnerability may entice him to embrace an almighty line with Brussels. He would not be the first Tory leader to follow the advice of Shakespeare's Henry IV and a "mind-preoccupied with foreign quarrels".
But
in the light of Donald Trump's defeat in the US presidential election, this
path seems less attractive. Joe Biden sees Brexit as a strategic error from the
start and sees Johnson as a Trumpian acolyte. The importance of that
perspective may be over. In the White House and Downing Street, most
transatlantic partnerships occur, regardless of the level of security policy
mediated by agencies and institutions.
Nevertheless, there is an immediate problem as to the dim idea of Johnson's disregard for international law, as advertised in a bill repealing Northern Ireland Protocol to the Brexit withdrawal agreement. The new presidential-election is seen as a subversion of the Good Friday Agreement, which is dishonest in the eyes of any democrat and a personal affinity for a Democratic Irish-American who takes his lineage seriously.
Trump
was an enemy of the European project, so his fall makes Brexit a lonely
adventure in the world. This raises the cost of failure to agree on an
agreement in Brussels. Johnson would quickly row over Irish border obligations.
Washington will take the side of Dublin as a Dalit, rogue by Britain as a
bully.
Gone
is the idea that an accelerated transatlantic trade deal would result in loss
of access to EU markets. (The number was never added to that proposal, but it
had religious significance for Brexiters.) Instead, completing a European deal
became a necessary condition to get Washington back on track. It is a point
that no 10 Johnson can use to bring radicals to the board on any agreement made
in Brussels. The line would be that imperfect housing with the European Union
for an American deal Britain must bear to fulfill its grill quest.
But
there is also a risk that the EU's side reads too much into Trump's defeat, and
assuming that there is no room left for Britain, Friendless has no room for
maneuver, for Johnson. Some face-saving concessions fail to choreograph.
If it seems that Brussels is setting the terms, the Tory leader will be surprised and switch to combat mode. He is not afraid of a dirty Brexit. The result he wants to avoid is one where the mess is not anyone's fault, but o
Brexit LIVE: No deal in SEVEN DAYS unless EU gives in to fishing ultimatum - 'Time's up!'A BREXIT no deal is edging closer with just seven days to go before the EU's new negotiation deadline. https://t.co/fEeTOiLLiR pic.twitter.com/Qkcpk4R2vR— Political Lies (@Political_Lies) November 12, 2020
0 Comments