The mood of music has suddenly changed. There is oh so much Brexit speculation in the air. Will the EU-UK trade deal be announced early next week?
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is expected to brief the 27 member states on Friday about the state of the game. Often after months of outrage and circular talks - could it be?
Well, it can happen. But "it" may still be a week or (not too much) more distant.
Frankly, "it" could have happened
easily yesterday or even a month ago.
The main three sticking points in the
negotiations - the fish, the rules of the competition, and how to control the
deal if it ever agrees - are clear from the start.
Each party knew that the agreement would inevitably be called. But to make them or not, and who should move first? This is what we are waiting for the decision on both sides.
Of course, coastal states of the European Union,
such as France, the Netherlands, and Spain, have long known full well that they
would need to reduce their hold in UK waters. But they wanted to participate in
the negotiations until they saw the flexibility of the UK government on another
major issue: the rules of competition.
No 10 now wants to be tied to Brussels'
regulatory apron wire after Brexit. that's a given.
But the European Union is waiting for the UK to
accept that it will not offer tariffs — and give access at its door (UK) to a
serious competitor for the quota-free single market, as long as the competitor
general does not agree on unbiased standards. Contest.
Brussels also wants a legal guarantee that those
rules and standards will be respected in practice. Mutual trust is in short
supply.
The EU wants assurances that Britain will not
remove or reinstate the government (the EU-UK agreement is reached based on the
bill) Claus in the bill, which contradicts Northern Ireland's protocol, has
Boris Johnson and EU leaders Signed on year.
The government insists that those clauses are
needed as a protection clause to preserve trade links across Britain. The
European Union says that they break an international treaty and threaten not
only the integrity of the single market but also the peace process of Northern
Ireland. Something the government denies.
Once the UK and EU negotiators are clearly clear
that the other is ready to compromise, the gestures and choreography of
announcing the deal comes down to how the "deal" sells.
Both sides should be able to come away from the
negotiating table declaring this victory.
Of course this "PR drive" is
particularly important for Boris Johnson. The deal will be slim. A very distant
connection to the European Union - at least in terms of trade - means new costs
and red tape for businesses.
To be clear: In these last hours and days of
negotiations, the choice to face the government is not amidst a hard or soft
Brexit. That ship has already left. Britain is leaving the EU customs union and
a single market. The government's choice is now between a tough Brexit with a
deal or no deal with the European Union.
Remember, whatever happens now - no deal or no
deal - this will not in any way be the end of EU-UK relations negotiations. For
example, neither financial services nor pet travel has been part of these
negotiations.
Agreeing on those subjects and others, such as
easing the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will be
easily done when the deal is agreed. It should smooth bilateral relations - or
at least, they should not escalate further.
For now, though, let's all talk about the imminent
trade deal announcement with care.
True, there is very little time left for
negotiation. There are only six weeks until the end of the transition period.
Not only should the agreement be agreed by then, but it should also be signed by
Parliament in the UK and European Parliament.
But - until we know that on those tough political
agreements, Britain and the EU have held their noses together and jumped -
whatever rumors and whispers you may have heard are just smoke and mirrors.
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